This web site presents and discusses research on the relationship between the financial sector and the real economy. Particular attention is devoted to
- interest rates, monetary policy, and monetary tightening cycles
- the information content of the yield curve and its leading indicator properties
- the supervision and regulation of financial institutions.
The probability of recession for August 2017, based on the yield curve, is 8.6%.
This probability has been above 30% before every recession since 1967. See Current estimates.