This site looks into the relationship between the financial sector and the real economy. The navigation bar above is a guide to the following topics.

  • The information content of the yield curve and its ability to forecast recessions
  • Monetary policy, interest rates and monetary tightening cycles
  • The supervision and regulation of financial institutions
  • Econometric methods developed to assist in the interpretation of empirical results in these areas

Or go straight to the bottom line: Is a U.S. recession in the cards within a year?

RECESSION WATCH based on latest monthly data, for May 2024

  • Alert! The probability that a US recession will start within 12 months is 90.9%. Details
  • This probability has been above 50% within one year of each of the 8 recessions since 1968.
  • More frequent updates at Twitter/X @intheyield.

UPDATED MATERIAL