This web site presents and discusses research on the relationship between the financial sector and the real economy. Particular attention is devoted to

  • interest rates, monetary policy, and monetary tightening cycles
  • the information content of the yield curve and its leading indicator properties
  • the supervision and regulation of financial institutions.

Recession watch: The probability of recession for August 2019, based on the yield curve, is 13.8%.
This probability has been above 30% before every recession since 1967. See Current estimates.

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