This site looks into the relationship between the financial sector and the real economy. The navigation bar above is a guide to the following topics.
- The information content of the yield curve and its ability to forecast recessions
- Monetary policy, interest rates and monetary tightening cycles
- The supervision and regulation of financial institutions
- Econometric methods developed to assist in the interpretation of empirical results in these areas
Or go straight to the bottom line: Is a U.S. recession in the cards within a year?
RECESSION WATCH based on latest monthly data, for October 2023
- Alert! The probability that a US recession will start within 12 months is 92.5%. Details
- This probability has been above 50% within one year of each of the 8 recessions since 1968.
- More frequent updates at Twitter/X @intheyield.