Explore this site to look into the relationship between the financial sector and the real economy. The navigation bar above is a guide to the following topics.

  • The information content of the yield curve and its ability to forecast recessions
  • Monetary policy, interest rates and monetary tightening cycles
  • The supervision and regulation of financial institutions
  • Econometric methods developed to assist in the interpretation of empirical results in these areas

Or go straight to the bottom line: Will the U.S. be in recession a year from now?


  • The probability of recession for April 2022, based on the April 2021 yield curve, is 4.9%.
  • Since 1967, this probability has been above 30% about one year before every recession, but at no other time.
  • The one-year-ahead probability exceeded 30% from June to September 2019, signaling a strong likelihood of recession from June to September 2020.
  • The NBER has determined that a recession started in March 2020 but has not yet determined its end.