In the paper cited below, we identify the ends of 13 monetary tightening cycles in the U.S. economy from 1955 to 2000 (denoted in graph by vertical grid). Of these, 9 were followed by NBER-dated recessions (shading) and 10 were followed by substantial rises in unemployment (see table). The paper describes the methodology and provides detailed results. Using essentially the same methodology, the end of a 14th tightening cycle is identified in September 2006, followed by a rise in unemployment and an NBER-dated recession.
Tobias Adrian and Arturo Estrella, "Monetary Tightening Cycles and the Predictability of Economic Activity." Economics Letters, May 2008
Tobias Adrian and Arturo Estrella, "Monetary Tightening Cycles and the Predictability of Economic Activity." Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 397, October 2009 (Update of journal article)